Do climate refugees really exist?

All in all, it makes for a compelling read, and I recommend you check it out. But what I found most interesting was the presumption that the western world lives in fear of mass migrations from developing nations due to inhospitable climate conditions. The term “climate refugee’ has been repeatedly contested in UN negotiations for the upcoming Copenhagen summit, largely because “refugee” invokes legalese pertaining to the 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, in which Article 1 states:

“A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it..”

As such, if “climate refugees” were to in fact exists, they would be entitled to certain rights and protection. Tacoli seems to suggest that fear by western nations of the financial burden of supporting these refugees is bogging down the business of poverty alleviation and development. Instead she proposes rich nations assist with financial support to help developing nations adapt to climate change, thereby reducing the need for migration.

Cash transfers are ok, but money won’t make the crops grow if the rain doesn’t come. It’s true, a term like “climate refugee” could have legal consequences, but if such refugees truly do exist, shouldn’t they be entitled to legal protection? Financial assistance helps, but if the IPCCC predictions prove true, no amount of cash transfer will prevent a devastating impact.

Peter arrived in Toronto three weeks ago from Uganda.

World Refuge Day was honored in Toronto today with a march from City Hall to Queens Park.   I stumbled upon the assembly while biking home from the farmers market.  Heavy rains resulted in a small turn out.  But I did meet Peter, a refuge from Uganda, recently arrived in Toronto.  We made small talk about the virtues of London mass transit and the weather in St. Petersburg.  It was nice.

Amidst the bureaucracy of negotiations, Care International, along seven NGO heavyweights released a report on the impact climate change will have on human migration.  The study, entitled “Give me Shelter,” clearly states:

• The negative impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement. The exact number of people that will be on the move by mid-century is uncertain. However, the scope and scale could vastly exceed anything that has occurred before. The International Organisation of Migration (IOM) estimates that there may be 200 million environmentally-induced migrants by 2050.

• People in the least developed countries and island states will be affected first and worst. The consequences for the global economy and poverty reduction efforts could be devastating. There may also be substantial implications for political stability.

And here we present a new class of politically oppressed: The Climate Refugee.

Language contained in the texts of international treaties is a critical negotiating point, often hotly contested.  And with good reason.  Using a term like “climate refugee,” has serious political implications, recalling 1951 U.N. convention on refugees.  Suffice to say, the United States took issue with the term immediately, which will be removed from the text prior to the December round of negotiations.

Still, it’s inclusion in the Bonn round of negotiations is indicative on the growing need to quantify the impacts of climate change on human populations. Critics continue to argue that the notion of climate change as a driver of migration is scientifically opaque. While science can prove that sea levels are rising and temperatures are getting warmer, it’s impossible to ascertain how people will react to those changes.  Will they leave their homes, or simply bunker down and weather the storm?  We won’t know for sure until the worst arrives.