Last week, delegates from 182 countries concluded preliminary talks at the UN climate conference in Bonn Germany. The goal was to create a draft negotiating text for the climate summit which will occur in Copenhagen in December. The December summit is due to draft a replacement for the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012. Meetings for future meetings, which are, of course, for future meetings…
Amidst the bureaucracy of negotiations, Care International, along seven NGO heavyweights released a report on the impact climate change will have on human migration. The study, entitled “Give me Shelter,” clearly states:
- The negative impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement. The exact number of people that will be on the move by mid-century is uncertain. However, the scope and scale could vastly exceed anything that has occurred before. The International Organisation of Migration (IOM) estimates that there may be 200 million environmentally-induced migrants by 2050.
- People in the least developed countries and island states will be affected first and worst. The consequences for the global economy and poverty reduction efforts could be devastating. There may also be substantial implications for political stability.
And here we present a new class of politically oppressed: The Climate Refugee.
Language contained in the texts of international treaties is a critical negotiating point, often hotly contested. And with good reason. Using a term like “climate refugee,” has serious political implications, recalling 1951 U.N. convention on refugees. Suffice to say, the United States took issue with the term immediately, which will be removed from the text prior to the December round of negotiations.
Still, it’s inclusion in the Bonn round of negotiations is indicative on the growing need to quantify the impacts of climate change on human populations. Critics continue to argue that the notion of climate change as a driver of migration is scientifically opaque. While science can prove that sea levels are rising and temperatures are getting warmer, it’s impossible to ascertain how people will react to those changes. Will they leave their homes, or simply bunker down and weather the storm? We won’t know for sure until the worst arrives.
